If it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a really clear evolution in how intricate wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of outcome on Derby day. We have moved far beyond just picking a winner or a second-place finisher and moved to head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of success, in addition to stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I tend to find myself trying to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my bet, who knows what’s going to happen after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 prior to the real race begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposal wagers for the Kentucky Derby:
How many spans would be winner win ? More than 1.5 (-160), or Beneath 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one span on 42 events. On the opposite conclusion, the Derby was obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a great deal of speed horses entered, or horses that tend to favor the front end. With lots of vying for early positioning, a possible rate duel might ensue upfront. If that’s true, then it tends to benefit horses which are sitting just off the rate, and provides a reasonable shot for some of the deep closers to operate down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most probable case scenario with this bet to cash would be for quicker fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish in the cord. In a field as competitive and carefully matched as this one, there is a lot of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of length success.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this sure have changed as Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there were numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend appears to be actually be factored in to the likelihood of this bet, and the recency bias of Justify getting the bidding last year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite — cash on an easy proposition bet this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Location Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or (+160)
This number seems to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse 15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.
Despite who plays or underperforms based in their odds, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner that records a DNF or must pull up. This can often happen because of unforeseeable conditions and is something that you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run smoothly, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate having an saddlecloth number. In +160, that seems like a great deal of worth to take a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”